Iranian Revolution
Iran - Not Quite the Second Revolution. Yet. History has shown us, time and again, that political revolt often occurs when authoritarian regimes take the obedience of their subjects for granted, do as they desire as they naively ignore growing discontent, only to then discover that they have pushed their populace to breaking point. History may just have repeated itself in Iran. In scenes all too reminiscent of the popular uprisings that precipitated the collapse of the Soviet Bloc in the late-1980s – and indeed Iran’s own Revolution in 1979 – Iran has seen a political explosion since Ahmadinejad was inconceivably declared to have won a landslide victory in last weekend’s Presidential election. Iran’s population – that over the years has got ever younger, more educated, and via modern technology had become all too aware of what is going on in the outside world – had until now been placated by a limited form of ‘pro-Revolutionary’ democracy. Many were discontent, even angry, but at least they felt they had a voice. But when it became clear that this particular election was a mere facade designed to deliver the incumbent President back to power, it proves to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. As people have taken to the streets attempts by the government to stop news and pictures reaching them has backfired, only reinforcing, as in Eastern Europe in 1989, the view that the State is desperate to hide the truth from its own populace. Desperate to re-establish order, the powerful Guardian Council announced a partial recount, a quite remarkable U-Turn. Never in the history of the Islamic Republic has the State been forced, by the pure weight of public opinion, into making such a concession. So bullish do the Mousavi camp now feel however, that they have rejected the proposal and are instead demanding a complete re-run of the election. Meanwhile the protests gather pace, fuelled by the killing of at least 8 protestors. Significant attention has focused on Universities, the regime’s fear of their students speaking volumes about the crisis. Students were the driving force behind the Revolution 30 years ago, and are thus now being targeted by the authorities and the militias loyal to them. Yet the mood of protest is spreading. In another unprecedented development, on Wednesday six footballers in the Iranian national team, including the captain, took to the pitch in a World Cup qualifier – televised live on Iranian state TV – wearing green armbands, Mousavi’s election campaign colour. Such behaviour just a week ago would have been unthinkable, but suddenly anything goes, and there seems little the regime can do about it. Yet those hoping for a Second Iranian Revolution, with moderate forces this time sweeping away the mullahs, will likely be disappointed. There is undoubtedly huge anger amongst many towards the regime, Ahmadinedjad and his extreme policies and blunt pronouncements, the dire economic situation, all brought to the boil by the fixing of the election. But this is very different to there being a nationwide mood for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. And the clerics and the conservatives continue to command huge levels of loyalty and support, with key political, military and theological institutions loyal to them. The regime is very well placed to defend its power. As we saw in Lebanon following the Rafik Hariri assassination in 2005 – when another previously passive population took to the streets in their hundreds of thousands – if protests continue the authorities will be forced to take dramatic action to placate them. So long as they do so, just as in Lebanon, relative order will return. If however Iran’s leaders cling too tightly to power, view their public as an enemy mob, and launch the secret police and militias against their own populace, the table may be set for revolt. Make genuine concessions now and the Islamic Republic will survive – but if it hides in its proverbial ivory tower, convincing itself that the events on the street are the actions of a minority agitated by ‘foreign meddling’, then they will have made the same error the Shah made allowing them to overthrow him. For the incumbent regime, inaction - or overreaction - may mean death.
Iranian Revolution
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